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Cut hard to overcome real estate property market decline does not change

On March 1, the Central Bank reduced loan interest 0.25% and real estate registration system officially launched, this one good, one bad, the property market would you go?
the cut is different from this round is on November 21 last year, the Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time, this is a symmetrical cut benchmark one-year deposit interest rate fell 0.25% to 2.5%, ceiling deposit interest rate floating range from 1.2 to 1.3, that commercial banks of up to 0.25%. In view of the competition of commercial banks now hold storage and bank deposits to move the stock market, some banks immediately announced that the deposit interest rate floating to 1.3 per cent, at 2.75%.
in General, interest rates will be buyers of the mortgage interest cost, by some estimates, the rate cut (if lending interest synchronized drop) can make a loan of 1 million Yuan RMB per month interest 144. In view of the interest rates for the second time to confirm to the conclusion that the cycle of rate cuts. Mortgage interest will continue to decrease in the future. Will have a positive effect on real estate sales.
However, this positive effect is also should be considered. A mortgage interest can synchronize reduced loans would open supply market? B there are no more negative than cut good?
from the first level, despite the drop in mortgage interest, but due to the floating interest rates for bank deposits by 1.2 to 1.3, real interest rates on deposits do not fall in outflow of hot money, the Internet Bank funding costs financial and savings into the stock market to move under the pressure of the triple will not necessarily have more home loans can put out, mortgage concessions may not be in place. Therefore, the rate cut was on the discount real estate backing role.
from the second level, implemented on March 1, the property market of the real estate registration system to combat a more direct and powerful. Real estate registration system is the transformation of land into property tax money for future local government needs. Due to the original property has been through the bid, auction and handed over the tax. Government can received of property tax has two species: a,, new sale housing, if reference United States words, is annual market of says, prices rose of more more make of more more; b, has sale housing, but per capita over standard area (like 50 square meters) above part levy excess occupies resources tax, and quite may is stepped tax, per capita Super accounted for more more tax tax more high. This barely legal access said (to impose a property tax within the old house size makes no sense). Registration of the old house focuses on the meaning of the latter. This will hold the suite will be a huge burden, especially for officials, real estate registration system the pressure will be even greater, forcing them in front of the real estate registration to sell surplus property, to avoid become a target Government and public scrutiny.
in other words, cut backing role in the property market hard to overcome pressure from the real estate register, put it another way, of course, rate cuts can hedge partly because of the impact of the real estate registration.
in addition, from the perspective of macro-cycle and dividend at a higher level, property prices are falling is unstoppable. On the macro-cycle
, China in the past more than 30 years, particularly since 2000, the expansion of development to economic restructuring during the boom cycle; Meanwhile, speculative hot money, China brought monetary expansion of RMB appreciation towards the dollar devaluation, the outflow of hot money, domestic monetary tightening cycle, which is obviously not conducive to the property market.
on the demographic dividend, inflection points and dependency of China have entered the labor force supply than elsewhere. China's labor force from 2012 after the first year, now has three consecutive years to reduce population dependency ratio turning point appeared in 2013, according to the international experience, the property market inflection points of the population dependency ratio turning point occurred or slightly delayed synchronization.
of course, if oil prices continue to remain low, the Central Bank cut interest rates more, backing role in the property market will be better. Chinese think-tank, said: it is difficult to change because of the real estate registration system, macro-economic adjustment period and demographic dividend turning triple pressure led the downward trend. (Think tank founder author for the Chinese Yuan, "looking to win the world" Publisher keynote speakers are for reference only, investor decision at your own risk)
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